As we approach Christmas day, we can only hope that the Federal Reserve now realizes their fear of 1970s-style inflation created a rate-hike cycle that disproportionately impacted the U.S. housing market and that they need to be pro-housing again. Even with all the drama we have dealt with in 2022-2023, the housing market stayed intact […]
New home sales missed sales estimates, but the builders’ stocks have been roaring higher. What gives? There are two key things to remember before I go into the report’s details. Mortgage rates rising to 8% in October impacted the data line, which I spoke about on CNBC recently. Also, new home sales are notorious for […]
Did today’s existing home sales report give us a playbook for housing in 2024? I would argue yes, and the housing market today looks a lot like what we saw in late 2022. However, this time around, the Federal Reserve rate hike cycle is over, and we don’t need to worry about Fed presidents going […]
Boom! Housing starts had an epic beat Tuesday, which usually means the data will get revised lower at some point, but one thing is for sure: the housing starts and new home sales sector came to throw shade at the 2023 recession crowd. Many say housing leads the economy into a recession, which has been […]
The Federal Reserve played the good grinch for Christmas this year and delivered the best gift for homebuyers nationwide, leading to lower mortgage rates. The 10-year yield and mortgage rates fell together after the Fed meetings, which gave us mortgage rates under 7% last week. Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield What a crazy week! […]
Today’s inflation reports show that Federal Reserve rate cuts are in play in 2024 — not because of the labor market breaking, but because real rates are too high. If the labor market gets weaker, meaning jobless claims break over 323,000 on the four-week moving average, we can get even more rate cuts. The labor […]
Are big Wall Street investors really buying 44% of homes this year? The answer is no — not even close. Housing inventory is near all-time lows, but big institutional investors like Invitation Homes or BlackRock aren’t to blame. The 44% claim was made in the headline for a Medium article last week and then spread […]
Weekly housing inventory data We will start with the price cut data percentage because it deserves a detailed explanation. 2022 was a historic year for housing as we had the most significant home sales crash ever, and mortgage rates went from 3% to 7% in the same year. That type of move is very abnormal […]
After today’s jobs report, which showed unemployment at 3.7%, it’s now clear that the Federal Reserve does not need to create a job-loss recession to bring down the growth rate of inflation. The Fed has much to answer for after their massive rate hikes and quantitative tightening policy. These were created to bring down inflation […]
